Atiku’s 2023 dilemma: Will he sacrifice Ayu?

Atiku’s 2023 dilemma: Will he sacrifice Ayu?

In the past few weeks, internal intrigues in the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) have cast a shadow on the prospect of the party in the 2023 presidential election.

 The tension has put the party’s presidential candidate Atiku Abubakar in a tight spot. In this piece, reviews Atiku’s dilemma, the choices available to the veteran contender, the risks and the implications of whatever he decides.

Shortly after his election as the presidential candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Atiku Abubakar, was overwhelmed by his victory and he exuded much confidence as if 2023 presidential poll will be a walkover.

Party leaders also caught the bug and began scheming to occupy one office or the other. Those speculated to be eyeing offices were some ex-governors, many of them scheming to be ministers in an Atiku Presidency.  Governor Aminu Tambuwal began eyeing the position of President of the Senate), ex-President of the Senate, Dr. Bukola Saraki, Secretary to the Government of the Federation ; Adamu Maina Waziri or Akilu Indabawa, Chief of Staff; Eyitayo Jegede (SAN), Attorney-General of the Federation, among others.

Having co-funded Atiku’s campaign during the presidential primaries, Delta State Governor, Ifeanyi Okowa, knew he was going to emerge the party’s vice presidential candidate. Atiku took the long route of asking the party to raise a committee to recommend three candidates from whom he will pick one as his running mate. He gave the process a democratic colour when he already knew the answers before setting the questions.

Believing in the assurance of Atiku during a post-primary election shuttle to him in Abuja, Rivers State Governor, Nyesom Wike, who came second in the exercise , naively invested in lobbying to become the vice presidential candidate. He won the game at the search committee level to come atop of other aspirants in rating but Atiku preferred Okowa.

The fierce contest for the presidential ticket by Wike was not lost on Atiku’s camp and some Northern founding fathers of PDP, who persuaded Tambuwal to step down and join forces with Atiku. They opted for Okowa who was rated as “amenable and “more experienced” in politics than Wike. The Rivers State governor was seen as” combative and might be difficult to control.”

Some forces in Atiku’s camp couldn’t forgive Wike for hammering on power shift to the South to de-market their principal during the primaries.

Losing two tickets in quick succession to Atiku’s camp drained Wike, his governor backers and his cohort of strategists. One said:” We drew the battle line because we cannot take Atiku’s words to the bank. He should reveal to Nigerians what he told Wike when he went to see the governor after the presidential primaries. He made a commitment, let him say it. He should also explain why he jettisoned the report of a PDP committee which recommended Wike as the vice presidential candidate.”

Besides Wike, it was learnt that Atiku’s camp took total control of the party and the campaign structures to the discomfiture of Wike’s group and PDP governors, especially those from the South who have become alienated except Governor Douye Diri (pro-Atiku), Godwin Obaseki (anti-Wike), and Emmanuel Udom, who is neither here nor there.

The new development in the party prompted the protest that the North was in control of all the organs of the party including the presidential candidate, the National Working Committee and the Board of Trustees (BOT).

Unknown to Wike, most of the founding fathers of PDP, like a former National Security Adviser, Gen. Aliyu Gusau, made Atiku’s victory possible at the last minute. Since the grandees could not regain the control of the party from the governors, they wielded influence to back Atiku against Wike. One of them said: “We only rescued PDP from sliding into Area Boys enclave.”

THE AYU FACTOR

As part of the preparation for the presidential primaries, Wike, some PDP governors and leaders covertly schemed to install their favourites in the National Working Committee (NWC). The scrambling for the presidential ticket accounted for the ouster of Prince Uche Secondus who has been described as the “most transparent PDP chairman.”

Except for some smart leaders like Saraki, Atiku, was technically sidelined or given a low stake in the PDP’s National Working Committee. Findings confirmed that when Wike succeeded in securing a concession to produce the National Secretary of the party, Sen. Sam Anyanwu, he conspired with Benue State Governor, Samuel Ortom, and other like-minded governors to handpick Dr. Iyorchia Ayu as the next National Chairman.

Wike allegedly made many shuttles to Makurdi in Benue State to extract pledges from Ortom that Ayu will not betray their confidence in him.  The undertaking of Ortom made Wike and others blind to intelligence on Ayu, especially his closeness to Atiku. Apparently to reassure Wike and his fellow governors that he would not betray them, Ayu granted an interview and said he would step down if the presidential candidate of the party was picked from the North.

According to investigation, Wike and his strategists spotted a big hurdle which could have inhibited the enthronement of Ayu as National Chairman. As a returnee to PDP, Ayu, allegedly, was yet to complete the two-year period to be able to contest for the office. But the pro-Wike group found a way round it. They raised a screening committee, which was headed by a former Attorney-General of the Federation and Minister of Justice, Mr. Mohammed Bello Adoke (SAN), to look into the issue. The committee cleared Ayu for the job. The committee was silent on constitutional lacuna until the present crisis of confidence between Wike and Atiku. As it is, Ayu was rehabilitated for the job ahead of the arduous task.

But Wike parted ways with him after the National Chairman’s costly open commendation of Tambuwal for contributing significantly to Atiku’s victory at the presidential primary.

A reliable source said: “Ayu was not circumspect with his comments because he showed bias, instead of being neutral. He also demonstrated that he was not with his new benefactor, Wike, during the primaries. We also got to realize that when it comes to choosing between the North and the South, Ayu will forever be for the North.

The source said that Ayu’s conduct shocked Wike. So, too, was the alleged betrayal by Tambuwal. The source said that “some governors warned Wike about Ayu but he ignored them and instead did everything he could to make him the national chairman.”

In spite of the fact that Ayu was one of those mounting pressure to make Wike the party’s campaign Director-General, his interventions were no longer trusted by the governor’s group, which is now contemptuous of him. It was learnt that in some meetings, loyalists and strategists of the Rivers governor derided him.

The row over Ayu was alleged to be a counter-plot to force him to live up to his promise to quit if a Northerner was elected as the presidential candidate. Despite the fact that the fresh demand of Wike’s group might be a face-saving plan to regain the chairmanship of the party, most leaders of the party are of the opinion that Ayu should walk-the-talk.

An insider in the party said Ayu stood up to Wike and his strategists because when the governors were not forthcoming on the National Convention for the presidential primaries, Atiku rescued the party. It was alleged that the former VP assisted the party with what one described as “a princely sum”.

The source said: “Ayu is in a cul-de-sac because he served God and mammon during the primaries. I think he is resisting Wike and company now to prove that they were not the only group that assisted the party.

ATIKU’S DILEMMA

A major challenge facing Atiku is reconciliation with the Wike group, ahead of the unfolding of his campaign council. From Abuja to Port Harcourt and London, he has been working round the clock to foster peace with Wike who is being backed by seven PDP governors.

The group’s demands are inclusion of all the geopolitical zones in the affairs of the party and removal of Ayu. Atiku wants a united party knowing full well that division is recipe for disaster in an election in which the ruling party has a formidable candidate. A source close to him said he is deeply worried by the development within the party but some founding fathers, among them Gen. Gusau; die-hard loyalists  like Governors Tambuwal and Godwin Obaseki; ex-governors Sule Lamido, Aliyu Babangida, Liyel Imoke want him to call the Rivers gov’s bluff. They have told him pointblank to reject conditions from Wike.

A few weeks ago, some party leaders met with Gusau in Abuja on Wike’s terms and concluded that bowing to the governor will create a bad precedent. It was based on the strength of the outcome of the meeting that Ayu came out boldly to declare that he won’t step down. He said: “I was voted as PDP Chairman for four-year tenure and I’m yet to complete a year. Atiku’s victory doesn’t affect the Chairman’s position. I won my election based on our party’s constitution. I didn’t commit any offence; I’m only reforming the party so I’m not bothered with all the noises. I know I’m doing my work and I didn’t steal any money so I see no reason for all these talks.”

A notable member of the party said: “There was no written agreement between Ayu and any group to resign if a Northerner became the presidential candidate of PDP. This is not the same thing as a Northerner winning the presidential election.

“I think Wike’s camp is talking of a moral obligation without looking at the PDP Constitution.”

The options before Atiku are as follows:

To forge ahead without Wike’s camp’s support

infiltrate and break the Rivers gov’s camp; work with the governors of Adamawa, Taraba, Sokoto, Edo and Akwa Ibom

Stick to Ayu to enjoy the confidence of founding fathers of the party and carry majority of PDP members along

Persuade Ayu to sacrifice for the sake of the party by resigning

Leave the National Executive Committee (NEC) to determine the fate of Ayu on Thursday.

Going by Section 45(1) of the PDP Constitution, Atiku is constitutionally hindered to push for the removal of Ayu because it will lead to nowhere for the party. The constitution is very clear that Ayu must be replaced by the party’s Deputy National Chairman (North). Other than the joy of easing out Ayu, Wike’s camp will achieve nothing. Section 45 (1) provides as follows: If a National Officer of the party is removed or resigns from office, he shall immediately hand over to the National Secretary all records ,files and other property of the party in his or her possession.

(2) In the case of the National Chairman, he shall hand over to the Deputy National Chairman  from his own region/part  of the country who shall, without prejudice to Section 47 (6) of this constitution, act as the National Chairman pending  the election of a replacement.

(3) In the case of National Secretary, he shall hand over to the Deputy National Secretary.

(4) This provision shall apply mutatis mutandis to other levels of the Party structure.

A party leader said: “Atiku is constitutionally hamstrung because PDP’s constitution is explicit that once a national chairman is stepping down or being forced to leave, he must be succeeded by a new candidate from the same geopolitical zone.

“Strict adherence to the PDP’s constitution in this situation will lead to another Northerner replacing Ayu in the worst case.

If Atiku fails to appease the South or if he ignores Wike’s camp, the consequences will lead to electoral setbacks for PDP in Rivers, Oyo, Enugu, Abia, Benue, and Ekiti, among others.

The likely voting patterns have shown that Atiku may perform below his 2019 score in most states in the Southeast and South-South. The exit of his former running mate in 1999, ex-Anambra State Governor, Peter Obi, may further impede his electoral fortunes in the Southeast and in the South-South.

But some of the researchers are predicting a cross path for Atiku and Obi if there is a presidential election stalemate or a run-off.  The figures are daunting and Atiku needs more friends than foes to make it. A source added: “At a time the Labour Party’s presidential candidate Obi may split Atiku’s votes in the Southeast and South-South; the race may be tight for Atiku if he doesn’t agree terms with Wike.

“And in the Southwest, ex-President Olusegun Obasanjo is not keen on selling Atiku’s presidential bid. He believes that power should shift to the South in 2023. He has silently associated with Obi.”

The North-Central, where PDP is only in control of one out of the six states in the zone, appears a dead end for Atiku. Notwithstanding the resurgence of the political platform of Saraki and the unending internal crisis in the All Progressives Congress (APC) in Kwara State, Atiku may not do well in the state. The APC has a rave of the moment, its senatorial candidate for Kwara Central, Alhaji Saliu Mustapha, who is being tipped to make mincemeat of Saraki’s platform.

Atiku may perform below his 2019 score in most states in the South-East and in the South-South. The exit of his former running mate in 1999, ex-Governor Obi may impede his electoral fortunes in the Southeast and in parts of South-South.  The projected figures are daunting and Atiku needs more friends than foes to make it.

The voting strength of each geopolitical zone is as follows: the North West (22,386,509); the Southeast (18,332,191); the North-Central (15,680,438); the South-South (15,299,374); the Northeast (12,820,363); and the Southeast: (11,498,277). A part of his permutations is reliance on Northern votes because the three zones in the region have about 96, 000 polling units compared to the South’s 80,000.

IS WIKE OR RIVERS A THREAT TO ATIKU?

Past election results indicate that Wike’s best record was to deliver about 1,020,000 votes in a state with 3, 215, 273 eligible voters in 2019 and 3, 689,197 voters in 2022. In his first election, he polled 1,029,102 votes amounting to 87.77 percent to beat Dr. Dakuku Peterside of APC who had 124,896. In 2019, he garnered 886,264 votes to defeat his closest rival, Biokpomabo Awara of the African Action Congress (AAC) who garnered a total of 173,769 votes. There were indications that his performance would have been worse if PDP had not tactically used the court to edge out APC from the race.

In the presidential elections in 2015 and 2019, the PDP got the bulk of the votes; the APC scored less than 25% of the total votes cast. The above, coupled with the expected diminished performance of Atiku in the Southeast and North-Central  perhaps explains why he is desirous of a truce with Wike and governors backing him.

A PDP chieftain disagrees: “We have done our homework, Wike is overpricing himself; he is technically a paperweight. He is behaving as if Rivers State is in his pocket. He cannot deliver more than one million votes. That was his best as an incumbent governor.

“As it is now, Kano has a voting strength of 6,026,850 (2022). If PDP and Atiku plan well, they can make up for the shortfall from Rivers State in 2023. He has forgotten that eligible voters in Kaduna are now 4,411,723 (2022) and Katsina boasts of 3,570,740 (2022).

“Wike has forgotten ex-Governor Peter Odili’s support for Atiku like some stakeholders including ex-Deputy Speaker of the House of Representatives, Rt. Hon.  Austin Opara, Sen.  Lee Maeba and others loyal to him.”

Responding to a question, the source, who was armed with fact-sheet said: “Some of the governors jetting out to London are no threats to Atiku. Governor Seyi Makinde became a governor in 2019 with 515,621 votes which Atiku can secure in a local government in the North.

“Even the Benue State Governor, Samuel Ortom, earned a second term ticket with 434,473 votes to beat his closest contender, Emmanuel Jime of the All Progressives Congress (APC) with 345,155 votes. So, what are these London trips for other than to waste taxpayers’ money? Can these governors cause upset for Atiku?

WHAT WILL ATIKU LOSE IN WIKE?

Findings revealed that apart from war chest, Atiku can be de-marketed by Wike’s camp’s propaganda. Also, being the arrowhead of the PDP governors, the gang up can alter Atiku’s permutations in some states. A source added:  “The PDP’s candidate is also in a fix because seven PDP governors are with Wike. If there is no concession from Atiku, the PDP Presidential Campaign Organization may lack the necessary political support and it might be cash-strapped to prosecute the 2023 poll.  Running an election is not a tea party. But a source in Atiku’s camp said: “All the talks with Wike and other stakeholders are normal in an election year.  At the end of the day, we will disagree to agree.

“Our candidate is embarking on reconciliation to enable him set up a robust campaign structure. I can tell you that Atiku will survive all these challenges.

“Wike will also hear from Atiku soon.  No one is weak in this game.”